In the complex universe of the Spanish real estate market, Barcelona and Madrid, as major players, are beginning to show signs of setbacks and a possible fall in housing prices. This scenario, marked by a previous downward resistance due to high demand, reveals a new dynamic in these cities that have experienced continuous increases in housing prices in recent years.
The real estate market, often compared to a journey to the center of the Earth where the pressure increases as it deepens, is showing signs of change in Spain’s two most important metropolises.
Although demand has been a key factor in price stability, analysts are beginning to question the sustainability of steady price increases.
Forecasts and backtracking signals
Opinions and forecasts vary, but some experts, such as Scholtes, suggest setbacks ranging from “stability” to declines of 7%. However, there is no clear consensus among analysts, especially when talking about cities as stressed as Barcelona and Madrid.
Nationally, Bankinter predicts a 1.2% increase in home prices this year, followed by a 2% drop next year. These swings appear subtle compared to other European markets affected by the economic downturn and rising interest rates.
The most recent quarterly report from the Association of Registrars presents data that supports the idea of a possible slowdown. The average price per square meter in Barcelona decreased by 0.8% compared to the previous year, standing at 4,318 euros.
Madrid, although still showing an increase of 4.3%, has seen its average price fall to 4,017 euros. These figures mark a significant change from the 6.3% and 7.1% increases recorded at the end of last year in Barcelona and Madrid, respectively.
Quarterly declines and change in demand
The quarterly comparison in the provinces of Barcelona and Madrid reveals decreases of 0.6% and 0.8%, respectively.
The registrars also point out that the capital cities have reduced their weight in home sales in relation to their respective provinces, indicating a shift of demand to the suburbs, where prices are beginning to show signs of cooling. This change could be due to a growing reluctance to pay high prices in central urban areas.
In the office market, the downward trend is even more pronounced. Transactions are down 72% in Barcelona and 34% in Madrid, according to Scholtes. Although sellers are resisting the price reduction, buyers seem to be waiting for an adjustment that could occur in the first half of next year.
Despite these indications, increases in the prices of homes for sale in Barcelona and Madrid continue to be reported.
